Has Khartoum, with the help of IGAD, crafted a deal for the demise of S. Sudan?

By Ukeec Nyigeelo –

August 1st 2018

Is this the beginning of the end of SS? Omenous scenarios are emerging in a bloody horizon after
swarting and possible total collapse of ARCSS in the process of its alleged revitalization in Adis Ababa,
Khartoum, Kampala and Nairobi.
The ARCSS (Agreement on Resolution of Conflict in S. Sudan 2015) seemed to have had its last breath
after the recent initialing of a Khartoum peace deal meant to be signed on Aug 5th 2018, and crafted by
Al-Bashir regime of Khartuom with the help of IGAD countries. That deal seemed to have dealt the last
blow to any glimpse of hope that any S. Sudanese might have had.
Voices of Equatorians calling for break away of Equatorial region from the bloody rest of SS started
becoming louder and bolder, urging fellow Equatorians to rally behind Gen. Thomas Mogga Cirillo Swaka
and Joseph Bangasi Bakadsoro, greatly popularizing the two Equatorian rebel leaders. These two guys
becoming popular amongst Equatorians is one of the things the SS government feared most. It is now
happening.
Break away of Equatorians or a mere call for such a move will ferment and explode a similar explicit calls
from sections of greater Upper Nile. Upper Nile by itself will get fragmented. Shilluk and Nuer may for
strategic or tactical reasons work together. They may however grow more repulsive towards Bor Dinka,
and possibly with the rest of the Dinka groups of Upper Nile due to recent developments under Kiir’s
regime. So Upper Nile in itself will definitely breakup into smaller ethnic nations and warring clans and
villages.
The most atrocious scenarios of all may be in Wau. The resulting chaose and what may be seen by the
embattled indigenous Wau population as a window of opportunity will tempt those minority
communities of Bahar Al Ghazal in Wau to join Equatorians in a call for independence or separation from
SS.
Such calls from Wau will readily attract massacres and their lands passionately grabbed. That land that
has been for long eyed by central government backed neighbors will be whole heartidly taken over, in
“good faith”, using an amalgam of heavy armed heavey handed ethnic government troops and
governments ethnic militia.
Even if the rest of S. Sudanese calls and effort to break away from the chaotic SS bear fruits, the scenario
of Wau minorities who are already currently languishing in the bushes with the rest of S. Sudanese, will
be like that of the Nuba and the Angasana people who fought and died along side South Sudanese in the
long liberation struggle for freedom and justice, but were ultimately left over there in the North with the
Arab oppressors. Dark and agonizing repeat of bad chunk of History is unfolding again, this time inside the new nation of South Sudan.

The urge to hold onto power everlastingly is so strong that it made Khartoum regime under Bashir and
his group prefer breakup of Sudan than to compromise and allow in democracy, freedom and equality. I
am saying History is also about to repeat itself here in SS, specially as it is now backed by Bashir and
Museveni of Uganda and IGAD countries. They may not only continue fishing and feasting in the marky
waters, but each may also curve out adjusant parts of fragmented SS for himself.
Let us hypothetically present a hypothetical question to the renown SS government hardliner and
outspoken minister of information, or members of JCE. Let the hypothetical question be: what would
they prefer gone? the SS government system with its failed agenda? or South Sudan as a nation – as a
whole?; in other words, would they prefer the system to give way for the sake of unity and survival of SS,
or they would rather allow the demise of the newly gotten nation? … …
The way some of them are often scared of the phrase “regime change” … … you would only imagine
what their answer would be.
SK and JCE are obviously worried that their ethnic communities would be exposed to possibilities of
revenge and massacres should he relinquish power. These fears are palpable and real, and should be
critically considered, discussed and any window for such possibilities properly mitigated. This can be
done in case of any other upcoming new and authentic peace initiative and process, by new and credible
mediator(s)
Any peace process that does not guarantee safety of each and every individual citizen or community is
not peace, and will only result into further cleavage of already severely damaged national unity due to
misrule. And that is exactly what is going to unfold under this current Khartoum peace deal that is about
to be signed on August 5th.
Other possible fears may be considered too. Material beneficiaries of the system such as SK himself and
his ethnic circles can be assured of either a take home package or guaranteed safety of what he has
already stolen. Such huge compromises may have to be made if SS is to have any hope of surviving

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